Published March 2, 2026
By Christine Blank published in Foodservice & Retail
Shifting trade and immigration policies, as well as rising operational costs such as labor, food, insurance, and energy, are among the top pressure points facing the U.S. restaurant industry this year.
According to the National Restaurant Association’s (NRA) “State of the Restaurant Industry 2026” report, this marks a continuation of issues faced in 2025, as 42 percent of operators said their restaurants were not profitable last year. More than 90 percent of operators cited food, labor, insurance, energy, and swipe fees as significant challenges.
Food prices have soared by 37 percent since 2020, according to the NRA, and as a result, the median profit margin for a full-service restaurant fell to 2.8 percent in 2024 – compared to 4 percent in 2019 – and 4 percent for limited-service restaurants – down from 6 percent in 2019.
This mix of pressures will require operators to rely on innovation and adaptability to stay agile in the current operating environment, the NRA advised.
“This will mean balancing restrained consumer spending and elevated costs by leveraging technology to create efficiencies that bring down costs and free up staff to focus on consumer experiences,” the organization said.
Meanwhile, the NRA is pushing for policies at the federal level that ease some of the burden for operators, including comprehensive immigration reform, favorable renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA), and passage of the Credit Card Competition Act to decrease operational costs.
“These policy priorities are essential to strengthening the foundation of an industry that powers America’s economy and employs one in 10 people nationwide,” NRA President and CEO Michelle Korsmo said in a release. “By advancing commonsense immigration reform, reducing swipe fee costs, and preserving a stable, affordable food supply, we can help operators manage structural costs, stabilize their workforce, and continue serving their communities.”
Nearly one in four restaurant employees are immigrants; therefore, current immigration enforcement measures in the U.S. are “creating uncertainty and chaos in the restaurant workforce in many parts of the country,” the NRA said.
In a new NRA survey of 900 restaurant operators, 55 percent of operators said their restaurant has been negatively impacted by immigration policy changes in recent months, resulting in declines in sales and customer traffic, challenges with hiring and retaining employees, and employees not coming to work.
“Legal immigration strengthens the workforce, which is the backbone of economic growth and prosperity for the nation. The [NRA] is advocating for comprehensive immigration reform that includes three core principles: protecting the industry’s current workforce, fixing the work visa system, and building a modern immigration system for the future,” the NRA said.
The NRA has also strongly advocated for preserving the USMCA.
“Mexico and Canada are the top suppliers of imported food and beverages for restaurant operators. The USMCA keeps food and beverage products affordable and guarantees access to the year-round products restaurant operators need,” the NRA said.
Additionally, the NRA said it supports the continuation of tariff exemptions for USMCA products and no new tariffs that would drive up costs for operators and increase menu prices for consumers.
Despite the pressures restaurants are facing, total restaurant and foodservice sales in the U.S. are expected to experience pre-inflation growth of 1.3 percent in 2026, reaching an anticipated USD 1.55 trillion (EUR 1.33 trillion).
K-shaped economic trends are particularly shaping consumer habits, as lower- and middle-income households are having their wallets stretched more than usual, the NRA said.
Higher-income households, meanwhile, will continue to drive much of the growth in spending in 2026, the report said, adding that the restaurant industry is still expected to see growth of more than 100,000 jobs this year.
“Restaurants remain an economic powerhouse that, even when faced with soft consumer spending and sustained margin pressures, drives job growth and fosters entrepreneurship,” NRA President and CEO Michelle Korsmo said in a release.
Though not all consumers have the money to dine out frequently, most Americans have strong pent-up demand for restaurant experiences. More than seven in 10 consumers say they would use restaurants more frequently if they had more disposable income, the NRA said.
“This desire is especially strong among Gen Z and millennials, who continue to lead the industry’s off-premises growth,” the NRA said.